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Estimates of land use and demographics, both current and future, are essential parts of travel forecasting. CCTA maintains a detailed database of land use and demographics, known as the Land Use Information System (LUIS), for use in its Countywide Travel Demand Model.
The LUIS lists the existing and forecast number of households and jobs by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). CCTA developed these detailed forecasts from census-tract-level forecasts prepared by the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). ABAG usually prepares a new set of forecasts every other year and CCTA uses those forecasts to update the LUIS. The LUIS then goes through extensive local review to refine the forecasts to better correspond to expected growth in the different parts of the county.
CCTA's Countywide Travel Demand Model is currently based on ABAG's Projections 2011 (P-2011) and incorporated considerable refinements from local jurisdictions. Forecasts are available for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040. CCTA is transitioning to ABAG's Projections 2013 (P-2013), which were released in early 2014, and are based on the land use inputs for the Bay Area's Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), part of Plan Bay Area - the current Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). There are significant differences in the future forecasts between the two sets of Projections, due to tempered job growth resulting from the recession, and the SCS policy of growth focused in the inner Bay Area core.
The summary tables are available which contain the households and jobs forecasts for cities, towns and unincorporated areas within Contra Costa and the Alameda County portions of Tri-Valley for the P-2011 and P-2013 LUIS data. Comparisons of the households and jobs information at the TAZ level can be interactively viewed at the TAZ level in Google Earth by clicking on the .kml files.
LUIS P2011 City Summary
LUIS P2013 City Summary
Households KML File
Jobs KML File